gO-bama
If you didn't know it by know, I'm a political wonk, and you can bet I watched the Iowa Caucus/Straw Poll results tonight. In fact, I watched it with some friends from an certain LGBT activist organization. I wanted to share a few thoughts.
1) I was a John Edwards guy 6 months ago. Then I got unimpressed -- I liked what he said, but he didn't move me. Obama did. Turns out I wanted to be inspired, not sold. I'm was watching the O-bandwagon until tonight. Now, I'm officially on it.
2) On the Republican side, I tend to like what Gov. Huckabee says -- he almost sounds like the compassionate conservative W claimed to be. If only he didn't want to quarantine the gay men and forsake evolution. Hopefully, he will at some point say that he won't force his religious views on people (I LIKE evolution). Regardless, his line that (paraphrase) "people want to vote for the guy who looks like them, not the guy who fired them" is awesome (Edwards should have used it).
3) I'll go on record now for the Republican nomination. McCain will beat Romney in NH, effectively ending Romney's bid. South Carolina will be a showdown between McCain and Huckabee. I prefer McCain, but I may root for Huckabee -- because he can't win a general election (and you can put me on record for that).
4) Edwards is over, but he could be big. I think he will try to play until South Carolina, and he won't win. If he got out now and endorsed someone, that person would win.
5) Unless Edwards endorses Hillary, the dominoes are lining up for Sen. Obama. He was nearly tied in NH before his Iowa victory -- I think his bounce will put him over the top. I think his destruction of Hillary's "inevitability" claim will win him the African American vote in South Carolina. If he goes 3/3 in the sanctioned primaries, I think he'll be hard to stop.
And I'll go work for him with the zeal I did Bill Clinton.
Happy Caucus Day!
posted by Joel @ 10:46 PM
2 comments
2 Comments:
Joel,
I like your commentary. A few responses:
1) I agree with the shift from Edwards to Obama, and I'm with you. I read a good piece in, I think, the Atlantic (it was in the magazine section of Barnes and Nobles) describing how Obama is the one candidate who is not still fighting about Vietnam. All the others are identified and think as one side or the other of the baby boom polarization that focused on that issue. Obama might actually move us forward in a sense of who we understand ourselves to be.
2. I agree that Huckabee is more interesting than many of his counterparts, in part because he probably really does care about people. My fear is folks that would be around him who might not be as compassionate with the policies. Of course, if you don't buy evolution, you can't actually use science to do things like find oil because the geological info doesn't work, so maybe we would save the Arctic Wildlife Refuge.
3. I think you're right. If McCain wins, Romney's done. The values voters have someone to support in Huckabee, and they never liked Mitt anyway. Rudy is, thankfully, done as well, unless he wins NH, which he won't (and he won't win a single southern Republican primary).
4. Obama-Edwards would be quite a ticket, especially for campaign rhetoric. The question is whether Edwards is open to being VP again. I don't think he could get away with supporting Clinton--his whole candidacy depended on him being the non-Clinton candidate, and he probably could have at least made it close if someone like Obama didn't enter the race.
5. It's hard to see how Obama loses right now, unless he shoots himself in the foot (not unheard of, but he's not the standard Democratic liberal, intellectual senator trying to figure out how to really lead--he's a natural leader looking for the right opportunity--and those folks don't self-sabotage so easily).
H. Clinton all the way!!!!!
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